VfL Bochum vs Werder Bremen – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfL Bochum's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.13x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
24%
4.23
25%
3.97
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.47
2.08
Werder Bremen xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
13%
7.97
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
3%
33.72
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 2.08 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.