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VfL Bochum and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 31, as VfL Bochum and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.16 xG and Union Berlin 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 29% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 45%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 59%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.83 PPG, Union Berlin 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights