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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of VfL Bochum.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Bochum 1-4 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.12 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.54 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 27% | Draw 28% | FSV Mainz 05 46%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 58%, FSV Mainz 05 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FSV Mainz 05 arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights