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VfL Bochum cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.51 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.46 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 38% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 36%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights