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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Werder Bremen 0.93 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.76 against Werder Bremen attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 58% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights