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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin finished level at 1-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.45 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 27%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.61 PPG, Union Berlin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights