VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.30 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 3W, Union Berlin 3W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 63% versus Union Berlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.45 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.906 / defence 0.994 | Union Berlin attack 0.781 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.752 / away 1.444. Data: 51 VfB Stuttgart games / 51 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 27%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: VfB Stuttgart 30% | Union Berlin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.45 / Union Berlin 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.906 / def 0.994 | Union Berlin attack 0.781 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.752 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union Berlin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 3 | Union Berlin 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.91) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.78x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.34
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Union Berlin xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.12 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 24W 10D 17L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 16W 16D 19L from 51 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.25 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (13W 3D 9L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 24W 10D 17L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 16W 16D 19L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Union Berlin away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.68 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Union Berlin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 60%, Union Berlin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (VfB Stuttgart) and 48% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 40% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin finished level at 1-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.45 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 27%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.61 PPG, Union Berlin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.