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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out SC Freiburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 1-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.79 xG and SC Freiburg 1.30 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 26%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.62 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights