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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hamburger SV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Hamburger SV attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights