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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 0.72 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 23%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.59 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights