VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MHPArena this season.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VfB Stuttgart and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus FSV Mainz 05 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.960 / defence 0.718 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.957 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.543. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 VfB Stuttgart games / 41 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 23%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | FSV Mainz 05 4.35. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.75 / FSV Mainz 05 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.960 / def 0.718 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.957 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FSV Mainz 05 xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 54% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (8 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 3 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.96) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.96x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.24
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.81
1.06
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
25.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.06 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 19W 8D 14L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 15L across 41 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.37 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 10W 2D 8L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 9W 3D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.54 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 11D 15L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.60 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
1
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 60%, FSV Mainz 05 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for VfB Stuttgart and 70% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 55% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 0.72 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 23%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.59 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.