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VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 38% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 35%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 70%, FC St. Pauli 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.43 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights