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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Fri 19 Sep 2025

19:30

Venue

MHPArena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

VfB Stuttgart Win

38%

VfB Stuttgart

2.61

26%

Draw

3.81

35%

FC St. Pauli

2.82

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.8%

Home win

0 – 1

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.34

VfB Stuttgart xG

Total xG

2.62

1.28

FC St. Pauli xG

38%
26%
35%
VfB StuttgartDrawFC St. Pauli

2.61

38%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

2.82

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.88

47%

BTTS No

2.14

Clean Sheet

28%

VfB Stuttgart

3.60

26%

FC St. Pauli

3.82

Win to Nil

11%

VfB Stuttgart

9.40

9%

FC St. Pauli

10.77

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 9.3 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 9.8 12.5 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.5 8.4 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 2.9 3.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.340
λ Away (xG) 1.280
Total xG 2.620
League avg home goals 1.713
League avg away goals 1.580
VfB Stuttgart attack strength 0.964
VfB Stuttgart defence strength 0.843
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.961
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.811
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 37 / 37