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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.96 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.26 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 75%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights