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Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.99 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Heidenheim 27%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights