🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 24%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 70%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights