VfB Stuttgart 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at MHPArena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MHPArena this season.
FC Augsburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 4–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VfB Stuttgart and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 63% versus FC Augsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 70% | FC Augsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.937 / defence 0.731 | FC Augsburg attack 0.909 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.463. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 VfB Stuttgart games / 43 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 4.17. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 50% | FC Augsburg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.50 / FC Augsburg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.937 / def 0.731 | FC Augsburg attack 0.909 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC Augsburg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 49% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Record (8 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 6W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.91x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.71
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
FC Augsburg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.97 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 20W 8D 15L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 19L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 11W 2D 8L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 6W 6D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.09 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 62%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfB Stuttgart and 57% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 57% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.50 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 24%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 70%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.