VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.20 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.60 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.019 / defence 0.913 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.127 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.992 / away 1.401. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 VfB Stuttgart games / 40 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Frankfurt 20%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.00. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 40% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Frankfurt 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.60 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.019 / def 0.913 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.127 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.992 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at MHPArena.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 62% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (10 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.60. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.62
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.04
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
7%
13.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
1%
67.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.44 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 20W 8D 12L from 40 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 14L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 4W 8D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.78 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 72%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.21 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.05 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 42%, Eintracht Frankfurt 84% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for VfB Stuttgart and 74% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 84% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.