1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SV Elversberg have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SV Elversberg arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, SV Elversberg in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 0 for SV Elversberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Köln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 80% and SV Elversberg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 66% | SV Elversberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.33 xG and SV Elversberg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.046 / defence 1.153 | SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 1. FC Köln games / 1 SV Elversberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 59% | Draw 21% | SV Elversberg 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | SV Elversberg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 90% | SV Elversberg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 59% | Draw 21% | SV Elversberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.33 / SV Elversberg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.046 / def 1.153 | SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.31
SV Elversberg xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 59% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.05x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.85x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.81
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.64
1.31
SV Elversberg xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
2%
52.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.31 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 8W 11D 16L from 35 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 8L across 35 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 7W 4D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.91 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
SV Elversberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.12 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
0
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when 1. FC Köln 1-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for 1. FC Köln, 65% for SV Elversberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for 1. FC Köln and 53% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of 1. FC Köln's games and 65% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 53% of SV Elversberg's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.