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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.90 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.17 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights