VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Mönchengladbach at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
VfB Stuttgart are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 58% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.36 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.140 / defence 0.935 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.840 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.405. Data: 53 VfB Stuttgart games / 53 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.25. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.36 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.140 / def 0.935 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.840 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 65% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (7 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.43
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.46
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
9%
10.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
65.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 32W 9D 12L from 53 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 22L across 53 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 18W 5D 3L from 26 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 4W 9D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.62 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 32W 9D 12L in their last 53 games (1.98 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.27 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 65%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for VfB Stuttgart and 69% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Mönchengladbach defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.36 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Mönchengladbach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.