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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Bayern München attack 1.25 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 48%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.91 PPG, Bayern München 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayern München win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights