VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 2W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 74% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.05 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 0.917 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 VfB Stuttgart games / 35 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 24%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.17. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.05 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / def 0.917 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bayer Leverkusen xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at MHPArena.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 4 | Bayer Leverkusen 4W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.01) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.09x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.33
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.38
1.34
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
3%
32.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.34 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 18W 8D 9L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 17W 8D 10L from 35 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.69 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (12W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.29 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.59 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 41%, Bayer Leverkusen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VfB Stuttgart) and 65% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.