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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out VfB Stuttgart 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfB Stuttgart 3-4 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights