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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.39 xG and Werder Bremen 1.48 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Werder Bremen attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.08 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights