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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 1-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.97 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.59 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.16 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights