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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.31 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.70 / defence 0.85 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 26% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.05 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights