Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum – Match Report

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Union Berlin and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.84 xG and VfL Bochum 0.95 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against VfL Bochum attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 56% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 17%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 45%, VfL Bochum 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.04 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights