1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 46%, yet in-form FSV Mainz 05 provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 58% and FSV Mainz 05 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | FSV Mainz 05 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.866 / defence 1.046 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.740 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.415. Data: 31 1. FC Heidenheim games / 65 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | FSV Mainz 05 4.00. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FSV Mainz 05 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 80% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 / FSV Mainz 05 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.866 / def 1.046 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.740 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FSV Mainz 05 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 46% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.87x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.74x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
46%
2.20
30%
3.36
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.64
1.09
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.09 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 28W 20D 17L from 65 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 17W 23D 25L across 65 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 18W 8D 6L from 32 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 6W 12D 14L across 32 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.32 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 28W 20D 17L in their last 65 games (1.60 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 17W 23D 25L in their last 65 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.94 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.94 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
FSV Mainz 05 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 59%, FSV Mainz 05 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 59% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 66% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 59% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 32, as 1. FC Heidenheim and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.74 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.