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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.47 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.71 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 32% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.21 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights