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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 4-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.92 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.77 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights