Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SC Freiburg travel to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Union Berlin's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Union Berlin at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Freiburg away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

SC Freiburg arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Union Berlin, who have won 5 of the 10 H2H matches we hold against SC Freiburg — SC Freiburg have 2 wins, with 3 draws.

The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2026, ended Union Berlin 0–2 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.

The head-to-head data gives Union Berlin an edge — 5 wins from 10 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 58% and SC Freiburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 58% | SC Freiburg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.30 xG and SC Freiburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.767 / defence 0.991 | SC Freiburg attack 1.005 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 43 games and SC Freiburg's last 43.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 36% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.81 | Draw 3.83 | SC Freiburg 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), yet SC Freiburg are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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