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Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.58 xG and SC Freiburg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights