Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Union Berlin have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with SC Freiburg managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union Berlin and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 50% versus SC Freiburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.58 xG and SC Freiburg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.045 / defence 1.010 | SC Freiburg attack 0.792 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.523. Data: 42 Union Berlin games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 3.45. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.58 / SC Freiburg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.045 / def 1.010 | SC Freiburg attack 0.792 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.22
SC Freiburg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg part of?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Record (8 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 3 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.04x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.79x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.03
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.80
1.22
SC Freiburg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.22 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 14L across 42 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.52 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SC Freiburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.38 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 62%, SC Freiburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 52% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 43%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games; SC Freiburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 38% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Union Berlin's recent games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.58 xG and SC Freiburg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.21 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.