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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.26 xG and RB Leipzig 1.37 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against RB Leipzig attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 33% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, RB Leipzig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights