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Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 5, as Union Berlin and Hamburger SV drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.95 xG and Hamburger SV 1.08 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Hamburger SV attack 0.56 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 57% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 20%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, Hamburger SV 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights