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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

18:30

Venue

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Union Berlin Win

57%

Union Berlin

1.74

22%

Draw

4.49

20%

Hamburger SV

4.90

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.95

Union Berlin xG

Total xG

3.04

1.08

Hamburger SV xG

57%
22%
20%
Union BerlinDrawHamburger SV

1.74

57%

Home win

4.49

22%

Draw

4.90

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

34%

Union Berlin

2.96

14%

Hamburger SV

7.06

Win to Nil

19%

Union Berlin

5.16

3%

Hamburger SV

34.59

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 9.4 10.2 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.1 9.9 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 6.0 6.5 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
4 2.9 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2
5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.954
λ Away (xG) 1.085
Total xG 3.039
League avg home goals 1.659
League avg away goals 1.676
Union Berlin attack strength 1.017
Union Berlin defence strength 1.159
Hamburger SV attack strength 0.558
Hamburger SV defence strength 1.158
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 4