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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 16, as Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.82 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 50% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, FSV Mainz 05 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.27 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights