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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sat 10 Jan 2026

14:30

Venue

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Union Berlin Win

50%

Union Berlin

2.00

26%

Draw

3.86

24%

FSV Mainz 05

4.16

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

8.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.82

Union Berlin xG

Total xG

3.04

1.22

FSV Mainz 05 xG

50%
26%
24%
Union BerlinDrawFSV Mainz 05

2.00

50%

Home win

3.86

26%

Draw

4.16

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.65

40%

BTTS No

2.53

Clean Sheet

30%

Union Berlin

3.38

16%

FSV Mainz 05

6.18

Win to Nil

15%

Union Berlin

6.76

4%

FSV Mainz 05

25.72

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 5.8 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 8.7 10.6 6.5 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 7.9 9.7 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2
3 4.8 5.9 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 2.2 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.2
5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.821
λ Away (xG) 1.218
Total xG 3.039
League avg home goals 1.632
League avg away goals 1.439
Union Berlin attack strength 1.000
Union Berlin defence strength 0.950
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.891
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 1.115
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49