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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.93 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.66 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.65 / defence 0.98 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 21% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 54%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 43%, FSV Mainz 05 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 0.98 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights