🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, as Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.48 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 28%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.18 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights