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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, as Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights