Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Union Berlin, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 4–3 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / defence 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.261 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.470. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Union Berlin games / 54 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.27 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Union Berlin 2.27 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / def 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.261 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 44% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (8 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.94x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.2%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
44%
2.25
21%
4.67
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.27
2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.61
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
4%
28.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 16W 17D 21L from 54 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 15L across 54 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 8W 11D 8L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 9D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.30 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
4
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Union Berlin and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Union Berlin's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, as Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.