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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.31 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.53 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 32% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.20 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights