Union Berlin vs Bayern München – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Bayern München travel to to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Union Berlin have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.60 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bayern München in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayern München, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Union Berlin.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bayern München trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 61% and Bayern München 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 64% | Bayern München 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.53 xG and Bayern München 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.054 / defence 1.179 | Bayern München attack 1.101 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Union Berlin games / 36 Bayern München games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 33% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 42%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Bayern München 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayern München 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 33% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Union Berlin 1.53 / Bayern München 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.054 / def 1.179 | Bayern München attack 1.101 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Bayern München xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 33% chance of winning, Bayern München a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 3 | Bayern München 7W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
33%
3.02
25%
4.06
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.27
1.75
Bayern München xG
3.02
33%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.30
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.75 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München's form line: 29W 6D 1L from 36 games, 2.58 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 14W 4D 0L from 18 away games — 2.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayern München in 64%.
Defensively: Bayern München in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 29W 6D 1L in their last 36 (2.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.28 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bayern München in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 72%, Bayern München 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Union Berlin and 83% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Union Berlin's games and 56% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Union Berlin's matches and 83% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.