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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and Bayern München share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and Bayern München finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.72 xG and Bayern München 1.61 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.67 / defence 0.90 against Bayern München attack 1.29 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 16% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 58%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, Bayern München 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights