Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union Berlin face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Union Berlin have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayern München — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bayern München away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Union Berlin.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–3 Bayern München — a Bayern München win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Bayern München trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 41% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | Bayern München 80%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Berlin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Bayern München have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 0.72 xG and Bayern München 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.672 / defence 0.896 | Bayern München attack 1.293 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.388. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Bayern München bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Union Berlin's projected output down. Bayern München have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 59 games and Bayern München's last 59.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 16% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 58%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 6.44 | Draw 3.73 | Bayern München 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayern München 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 16% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Union Berlin 0.72 / Bayern München 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.672 / def 0.896 | Bayern München attack 1.293 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bayern München xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 16% chance of winning, Bayern München a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 59 games and Bayern München's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
16%
6.44
27%
3.73
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.33
1.61
Bayern München xG
6.44
16%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
3%
32.16
28%
3.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.61 for Bayern München, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 16W 12D 31L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bayern München's form line: 42W 7D 10L from 59 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 6D 12L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 17W 5D 7L from their last 29 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Bayern München (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 42W 7D 10L in their last 59 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.34 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bayern München in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2026, when Bayern München won Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 52%, Bayern München 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Union Berlin and 83% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 66% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Bayern München matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Union Berlin's games and 69% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Bayern München matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 83% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 93% of Bayern München's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Bayern München share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Bayern München finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.72 xG and Bayern München 1.61 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.67 / defence 0.90 against Bayern München attack 1.29 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 16% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 58%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, Bayern München 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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