🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 2-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.61 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.58 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, 1899 Hoffenheim 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.22 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights