Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at : 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Union Berlin, 0.80 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 58% and 1. FC Köln 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | 1. FC Köln 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.771 / defence 0.972 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.763 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.992 / away 1.401. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Union Berlin games / 40 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Köln 4.35. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Berlin 1.70 / 1. FC Köln 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.771 / def 0.972 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.763 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.992 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.04
1. FC Köln xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 6W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.77) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.76x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
1. FC Köln xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
23.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.04 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 11W 11D 18L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 19L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Union Berlin against 0.98 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 9D 6L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.42 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 80%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 9W 12D 19L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.20 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Union Berlin, 70% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Union Berlin and 55% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union Berlin's games and 70% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Union Berlin's matches and 55% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.