SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg meet at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Elversberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SV Elversberg are significantly better at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 57% and SC Freiburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 62% | SC Freiburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.16 xG and SC Freiburg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.273 / defence 1.145 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. SV Elversberg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 SV Elversberg games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | SC Freiburg 3.57. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 70% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG SV Elversberg 2.16 / SC Freiburg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.273 / def 1.145 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SC Freiburg xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 51% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (1.01x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
51%
1.98
21%
4.67
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.75
1.59
SC Freiburg xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
3%
30.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.59 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 22W 9D 11L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 18W 9D 15L from 42 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.50 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.64 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SC Freiburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 2.19 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.05 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 57%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.